CHINA EV SALES
Global ranking, total EV sales
Global ranking, EV market share of national fleet
(1.1% Q4 2016)
CHINESE EV INCENTIVES
The transition period for Chinese EV incentives came to an end yesterday. According to the guidelines, Chinese automakers were in a transition period between March 26th to June 25th, 2019, where they could still qualify for the 50% local subsidies. From June 26th, 2019, local incentives are abolished; at the same time, the stricter range and energy density requirements also kick-in. In the transition period, EVs that did not meet the 2019 technical requirements could still qualify for 10% of the 2018 subsidy.
Key points from the new EV subsidy in China is that only vehicles with a range over 250km (156 miles) and batteries with an energy density of 125 Wh/kg qualify for incentives.
The following example shows the calculation for a EV with a range of 350km (219miles) and a battery with an energy density of 125Wh/kg:
2018 – 45,000 x 1.1 = 49,500 yuan
2019 – 18,000 x 0.9 = 16,200 yuan
See the table for 2019 subsidies in China here.
ANALYSIS OF CHINESE EV SALES DATA
China has reached the Top 10 Market Share list for the first time in 2015. The country also overtook the USA in 2015 as the country with the highest EV sales for the year. Click through to our detailed breakdown of EV sales in China filled with charts, tables, and insights. We look at the Top EV brands in China, the gainers, the worst performing EVs in China and the battle between BEV and PHEV models.
CHINA MONTHLY EV SALES RANKING
CHINA EV SALES REPORTS
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TOP MONTHLY CHINESE EV SALES RANKING MAY 2019
TOP EV SALES IN CHINA FOR MAY 2019
CHINESE EV SALES HISTORY
CHINA EV MODELS
All EV Models available in China currently
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CHINA EV SALES IN THE NEWS
Week 13 2019 - China EV subsidies formalized for 2019
After months of speculation, the Chinese authorities finally set the parameters for the 2019 subsidies for electric vehicles. According to the Chinese Government, it forecast that 1.7 million electric vehicles will be sold in 2019, which is 100,000 units above its previous forecast and half a million more than the 2018 figure. The final 2019 EV subsidy policy cuts were deeper from what was expected by the industry and are between 47% and 60% lower than in 2018. 2020 will be the final year of the Chinese EV subsidy program.
Passenger Electric vehicles which are bought for business use now qualify for 70% o the subsidy amount, compared to 50% previously which is soon as a boon for the ride-hailing industry.
To qualify EVs are also required to have traveled 20,000-kilometer within 2 years from the date of registration if not the subsidy will be recouped at the date of sale. The measure was brought in to combat subsidy fraud.
Requirements to qualify as an electric car to receive a subsidy in China
1. The maximum speed is not less than 100km/h over a 30 minute period.
2. To qualify for subsidies as a pure electric vehicle it needs to achieve a range of no less than 250 km (156 miles) and for plug-in hybrid vehicles no less than 80 km (50 miles).
3. The energy density of the battery of an electric car must be more than 125Wh/kg. EVs with an energy density up to 140Wh/kg only qualifies 80% of the subsidy and up to 160Wh/kg 90%, while any figure above 160kWh/kg qualifies for double the subsidy amount.
4. The energy consumption of the EV must be 0.8 times higher than the “Notice on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” (Cai Jian  No. 18).
EV SALES SUBSIDY FOR PASSENGER EVs IN CHINA 2019
Week 51 2018 - China EV subsidies slashed in 2019
Week 50 2018 - China EV sales November 2018 break records once again
Week 36 2018 - China to tighten controls on auto sector
Automotive News China quoted the Head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission’s Department of Industrial Coordination (NDRC) Nian Yong who indicated that the government is to tighten controls on the auto sector in a bid to curb excess capacity. The Chinese Government is to publish investment rules related to new factory capacity which will tighten industrial investment project management standards, strengthen regulation, and prevent haphazard investment and redundant development according to Mr. Yong. A draft of the NDRC rules were published in July for public comments spooked the auto sector. According to an NDRC official Gu Ziming, some concessions were granted in the final rules after taking into consideration the industry’s feedback. The rules will not only curb new investment in combustion capacity but also pull in the reigns of rampant EV investment. Automakers will now have to comply with certain conditions which will look at their financial viability and EV strategy.
Week 32 2018 - BYD July 2018 EV Sales
BYD released its monthly EV sales this week reporting a record month on the back of sales for its two new models, The compact pure electric Yuan EV360 SUV, and large SUV the Tang plug-in hybrid.
Week 31 2018 - China exempt Electric Vehicles from tax
The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced this week that New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) would be exempt from Vehicle and Vessel tax. The changes also make provision that the same tax on hybrid vehicles would be halved, this is vehicles using less than 1.6L/100km. There is a caveat though, only vehicles from producers that comply with quality, range and efficiency standards, safety and battery recycling requirements will qualify.
Week 31 2018 - Hainan Province to spearhead 100% EV environment
In Week 16/18 I reported that the Chinese Government was considering to use the resort island of Hainan as a test case to ban fossil-fuel vehicles. This week the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the Hainan Provincial Government signed a strategic co-operation agreement that starts the process to ban ICE vehicles on the island by 2030. Hainan had 15,000 EVs and 2,900 charging points by the end of 2017 which it plans to increase tenfold by 2020. The Hainan Government’s EV mobility strategy will include changing its bus fleet to 80% EV by 2019, requiring ride-hailing companies to use EVs and promote bike sharing and time-leasing of cars.
Week 30 2018 - Beijing changes EV subsidy policy
In week 29/2018 I reported that the Chinese Government is considering making further changes to its EV incentive policy later this year. In terms of the country’s EV incentives municipalities can add their own incentives on top of that of the Government capped at 50% of the Government incentive. The Beijing municipal authority changes its policy this week to cap EV subsidies at 60% of the total value of the vehicle. In terms of the regulation, manufacturers of passenger vehicles provide the subsidy which they then claim back from the authorities. Other vehicle types only qualify for the subsidy once they reach 20,000 km (12,500 miles). Beijing hoped to promote the sale of 280,000 units by 2024. EV sales in Beijing currently stand at 175,000 units.
Week 30 2018 - EVs at the 2 million unit mark in China
The Chinese Government reported that total EV registrations as at the end of June 2018 stood just below the 2 million mark. EVs now stands at 0.87% of the total vehicle fleet in the country, up from 0.7% at the end of 2017. Passenger vehicles contribute 81% of all EVs and trucks 12.1% ( 240,000 units) with the balance made up by buses and special purpose vehicles.
Week 29 2018 - China to cut EV subsidies further
Automotive News China reported that the Chinese Government is looking at further cuts to its subsidy policy according to insiders. Changes to the EV subsidy policy are expected as its widely expected that incentives for EVs will fall away at the start of the next decade. In 2017 the Chinese Government spent $1 billion on EV subsidies. What is interesting about the proposed changes though is that the Chinese Government is forcing auto manufacturers to improve their technologies as a way to become the world leader in the electric and autonomous cars in accordance with its 20125 “Made in China Strategy”. Insiders hinted that from 2019 EVs should have a minimum range of 200km (125 miles). The 2018 EV subsidy requirements below:
The Chinese Government implemented a new EV subsidy policy on the 12th of June 2018, scrapping incentives for pure electric cars with a range below 150km (94miles). The rules of the new policy are designed to foster improvements in EV technology, favoring EVs with high energy density and efficiency. According to the new EV incentive policy, EVs will qualify for subsidies based on five range trances:
- Between 150km and 200km will be reduced from RMB 36,000 to RMB 15,000;
- Between 200km and 250km will be reduced from RMB 36,000 to RMB 24,000;
- Between 250km and 300km will be granted RMB 34,000;
- Between 300km and 400km will be subsidized RMB 45,000;
- Above 400km will gain RMB 50,000.
Criteria for battery energy density were divided into four levels.
Subsidies based on the energy density of batteries are as follows:
- 105Wh/kg to 120Wh/kg = 0.6 times subsidies;
- 120Wh/kg to 140Wh/kg = 1 time subsidies;
- 140 Wh/kg to 160 Wh/kg, 1.1 times subsidies;
- and more than160Wh/kg 1.2 times subsidies.
Subsidies for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle will be reduced by RMB 2,000 to RMB 22,000.
Week 27 2018 - China lowers tariffs but.....
China, this week lowered tariffs on imported light vehicles from 25% to 15% and parts to 6% from 10% in the escalating trade war started by Donald Trump. The announcement came with a caveat that cars from the USA will attract a 25% penalty after July the 5th 2018 should Donald Trump not cancels its 25% levy on Chinese goods. Importing automakers such as Tesla jumped at the opportunity to be more competitive with the lower tariffs dropping their prices by around 6 percent which would equate to a 710,000 yuan ($107,000) price tag for the entry-level Model S. The reduced price for Tesla EVs is expected to be shortlived.
Week 25 2018 - China sees risks in EV production plans
While the international market now slowly wakes up to the growing demand for electric vehicles the leading market, China, identified the blind rush to EVs in that country as a risk. According to Reuters a spokesperson for the state planning agency said that the Chinese Government is ready to take action to stop the overcapacity in EV production. The May batch of approved EVs (batch 307 in the database from our shop) had nearly 2,000 EVs consisting of buses, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles from well over a 100 manufacturers. In 2016 the Government introduced a permit system, only allowing ten automakers to be permitted to produce EVs. The list was increased to 15 in 2017. In 2018 there are more than 20 start-ups busy with the construction of EV plants. The sales data though does not paint a pretty picture so far for the new entrants who battle to sell EVs at the same volume as the established brands.
Week 24 2018 - China EV sales power ahead
Chinese EV sales are powering ahead, EV sales in May 2018 were the second-best performing month of all time and increasing year on year sales by almost 150%. China remains the catalyst for global EV Sales accounting for around 60% of EV sales in the top 10 markets in May. The Top selling EV brands were BAIC, BYD, and SAIC while the top new model was the WEY P8 and the top new Brand Han Teng with its X87 PHEV and X5 EV SUV’s. If you are interested in my full report on Chinese EV sales for May 2018 please click here.
China’s dominance in the EV sector is helping its automakers to gain traction in international markets. This week Geely subsidiary Zhi Dou announced that the South Korean Government ordered 1,000 Zhi Du D2 mini EVs. Zhi Dou is the third official supplier to the South Korean Government after local producer KIA and the GM. Unfortunately, the trade war between the USA and China might put a damper on the Chinese automakers with plans to establish in the USA. Deputy GM of GAC, Li Shao, said to Automotive News China that any increase in tariffs by the US would have an impact on its plans to start selling cars there. GAC has started recruiting dealers to commence operations in 2019.
Week 21 2018 - China cancels tax incentives on some EVs
The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the State Administration of Taxation, announced in 2017 that it would revoke its approval for some electric cars complying for tax incentives. The ministry had verified the production or import volume of models that were listed in the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles Exempted from Purchase Tax for Vehicles before January 1, 2017, and disqualified all those with which have not been produced or imported by April 2018. A total of 1,8882 electric buses, passenger cars, and vans met the criteria and lost their tax-exempt status.
Although itself can only be seen as a spring cleaning of the list, the ministry also enforced stronger technical guidelines. In December 2017 reports surfaced that the ministry will increase energy density requirements to no less than 115 Wh/kg and reduce the energy consumption threshold to no higher than 2.1kWh/100km down 14% from the 2017 level of 2.4kWh/100km on the plug-in hybrid EVs.
The stronger technical requirements impacted some well known EVs from the top auto brands including BAIC, BYD, and JAC. Models such as the BYD Qin which sold over 100,000 units were included in the list. Over 80 passenger cars were included:
JAC iEV6S and iEV5 models, BAIC’s E150EV, EV260, EU300, EU260, EX300, EX260, EV200, EV160 and EU220, and BYD’s Qin, Song DM, and Yuan.
The impact of the culling should however not impact drastically on Chinese EV sales as automakers released upgraded models of there most popular EV models in the last quarter. Some models from the picture above that will lose their incentives is the Maxus EG10, Brilliance H230, Kawei W1, Dongnan V5 and V3, ZhiDou D1, Besturn B30 and the Zotye A3 EV and Zotye SR7 EV. Popular models such as the Eado PHEV, GAC GS4EV, Song DM and JAC iEV6EV have undergone improvements to keep their tax-exempt status. New models such as the Kandi K22 and Kandi K27 will also enter the market as the companies build on their exciting ranges.
In related news, the Chinese Government announced the lowering of its import duties on international auto imports from to 15% from 25% from July 1, 2018. Import duties on parts will drop to around 6% from 10% as the country responds to Trump’s trade war. Already Tesla announced large price cuts on the back of the news with the sales price in the Model X dropping as much as $15,000.
Week 10 2018 - China issues first self-driving permit
The state-owned news agency Xinhua announced that the Chinese Government would join other countries and allow companies to test self-driving cars on public roads. According to the report SAIC Motor Corp received two licenses and NIO another. The permit allows license holders to test drive the vehicles on a 5.6-kilometer (3.5-mile) public road in Jiading District of Shanghai. According to Huang Ou, deputy director of the Shanghai Commission of Economy and Information Technology, Shanghai will open more roads for testing over time. Up till now, companies tested vehicles but illegally so, one high profile case involved Baidu (China’s Google) which was caught testing in Beijing.
2018 Week 9 - Rules placed on recycling of EV batteries
The Chinese Government published interim rules this week regulating the recycling of electric vehicle batteries. The new rules will make electric vehicle manufacturers responsible for the recycling of batteries powering their cars as waste is expected to rise to 170,000 tonnes in 2018. According to the rules manufacturers must:
- Set up recycling channels and service outlets where batteries can be delivered by drivers, stored and collected by specialist recyclers;
- Establish a maintenance service network where drivers can repair or exchange their old batteries;
- Tracking batteries and identifying owners of discarded batteries which is part of rules to encourage good recycling practices among drivers. Car makers must also provide subsidies or battery repurchase agreements with owners to support recycling efforts;
- Provide technical training for dealers and car makers to store and dismantle batteries;
- One of the most interesting points in the rules is that battery makers should be encouraged to adopt standardized designs, to help automate the recycling process which could lead to cheaper EVs in the future.
2018 Week 7 - Local EV subsidies to remain
Recent reports claimed that the Chinese Government was set to scrap the local component of EV incentives which is aimed at supporting a robust EV sector and spur demand. Policymakers fears that by scrapping the local subsidies to curb state expenditure it will kill the infant EV sector. Local EV incentives is an extra subsidy set at a city level and are capped at 50% of that of the Federal incentives. Earlier the month Shanghai extended its local subsidy to 31 December 2020. In Shanghai, an EV buyer receives the full local portion of the purchase of a pure electric car and 60% on a plug-in hybrid. Bloomberg reported that unconfirmed sources indicated that the latest amendment to the national policy would retain the local incentives. The amended national policy has been changed to favor improved technology and longer range EVs by increasing the subsidy for EVs with a range of over 400km from RMB 44,000 to RMB 50,000 while upping the qualifying threshold from 100km to 150km and favoring more efficient batteries. Some sources indicated that FCEVs stand to gain the most by qualifying for 100% local subsidies. Shares of companies selling EVs rose on the report with BYD performing the best rising 5.2% on Monday followed by GAC with 4.3% and BAIC with 1.7%.
2018 Week 5 - The EV sector in China is of to a bang in 2018
Following a year of record EV sales where a couple of strong brands such as BAIC, BYD, GAC, and Geely emerged as frontrunners, the Chinese EV sector prepares for the effects of the Governments ZEV mandate requiring new energy vehicles to be 8% of sales from 2019 scaling to 12% in 2020. Some commentators believe that EVs would trigger a long-awaited industry shake-up forcing mergers with stronger brands or liquidation of loss-making brands which have been propped up by easy loans, government incentives and regulations to develop a local auto sector. Automotive News China (ANC) commented this week that effects of a stagnant auto sector coupled with pressure to develop EV technologies on small brands such as Haima, Lifan, Hawtai, SG Automotive and even state-owned companies are forced to alter their business plans. According to ANC Haima sales fell 35% in 2017 while various auto brands are struggling to raise cash in the current environment. Lifan which saw sales decreasing 2% in 2017 canceled a stock issuance on the Shanghai exchange due to investor perceptions. SUV makers Hawtai and SG are in merger talks while state-owned companies FAW, Dongfeng, and Changan which is lagging in the EV race agreed in December 2017 to share EV technology and develop a joint supply chain.
Even foreign brands are not spared, state-owned Changan this week had to approve a 1.8 billion yuan ($285 million) bailout for PSA’s local Citroen DS venture after suffering a 68% drop in sales in 2017 which contributes to the company technically becoming insolvent. The funds will be used to realign the lossmaking 50/50 JV and to develop EV models. Most automakers are now focussing on EV development as a way to yet again use state incentives to prop up their finances. Changan also announced a 50/50 JV with Mazda to develop EVs where the local operator will supply the technology and the Japanese automaker the body. The first EV from the JV will be a compact crossover in 2019.
The entry of technology companies in the auto sector is further fragmenting the Chinese auto market where funds are flowing to start-ups instead of traditional auto brands. Alibaba and Apple supplier, Foxconn, this week led a further investment round in EV start-up Xiaopeng with a 2.2 billion yuan ($349 million) investment bringing total investments in X-Peng to $800 million. X-Peng plans to bring its connected EV, the G3 Crossover, to market later this year. Haima was contracted to use its spare capacity to assemble the G3, formally know as the X-Peng Identity X, through to 2019.
The support by the Chinese Government to be the world leader in EV development is also creating opportunities for local brands with GAC and SAIC already announcing plans to enter the US and European markets with electric passenger and commercial vehicles. Bus makers such as BYD is already supplying electric buses to various Western cities while looking to develop a passenger vehicle assembly plant on Europe’s doorstep in Morrocco.
2018 Week 1 - China extends tax rebates for EVs while suspending 553 ICE models
The Chinese Government announced that it would extend the tax rebate for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles set to expire at the end of 2017 to 31 December 2020. In a related move the Government also punished carmakers for not meeting fuel economy targets by suspending production on 553 passenger vehicles from the 1st of January 2018. The Chinese Governments war on pollution is paying dividends already with Beijing recording the lowest air pollution data in 2017 compared to the previous three years.
2017 Week 50 - Sales of EVs now up to 2.13% of total fleet in China
EV sales in China hit a record 82,000 units in November 2017, bringing the annual total to nearly 500k units. Sales for all passenger vehicles dropped marginally during the period while EV sales rose a staggering 24.4% on the previous record set in October. Total sales for EVs for 2017 of 472,000 units now represent 2.13% of total sales for the year compared to 1.32% for the same period in 2016.
2017 Week 49 - China subsidy rework for 2018
Aspects of the anticipated 2018 New Energy Vehicle rules for China revealed this week sent some EV related companies shares sliding. Bus and lithium cell companies were hardest hit as subsidies for buses is expected to be impacted the most. From the leaked 2018 NEV subsidy plan the new rules aim to incentives technology advancements to bring longer range EVs to market. The new requirements lift the threshold for energy density and fuel saving level while increasing the range whereby EVs can qualify for subsidies. The rules also put stricter requirements on load capacity consumption (Ekg).
To qualify for subsidies according to the 2018 rules vehicles will have to:
- Reduce energy consumption to no higher than 2.1kWh/100km down 14% from the 2017 level of 2.4kWh/100km;
- Energy density requirements are increased from 0.15Wh/kg to 0.2Wh/kg;
- Vehicles with a range below 300km will lose between RMB 4,000 and 20,000 on subsidies while vehicles with a range over 300km will see a bump in their allowable subsidy;
- Vehicles with a range below 150km will not qualify for subsidies, thereby in effect disqualifying the Plug-in hybrid
The subsidy for buses will come down to RMB 270,000 from RMB 450,000, a decrease of 66.6% while other commercial vehicles will also see their subsidy slashed by around RMB 75,000.
It will be interesting to see how foreign companies such as Ford adapt their EV strategies according to the new ruling. Ford this week announced that it would release 15 EVs in China by 2025. Ford who only have one EV in China, the Changan Ford Mondeo Energi with a range of 22 miles, does already not qualify for the current threshold of 32 miles.
2017 Week 46 - China to extend EV manufacturing permits
Bloomberg reported that the Chinese Government is considering the extension of its EV production permitting program which was created to protect the market against an oversupply of EVs. The program allowed for only 15 EV production permits of which JAC was the last to receive in May 2017. The extension of the permitting program is rumored to commence in 2018 and based on recent comments is expected to allow wholly owned subsidiaries of foreign companies to partake.
2017 Week 41 - Chinese EV sales to reach 500K for 2017
Only a month after Chinese monthly EV sales set a new record of 53,000 units September sales set a new record of 58,000. Year to date EV sales in China which stands at 323K are now just shy of total sales in 2016 of 326K. At this rate we expect total EV sales for 2017 in China to reach 500K.
Other highlights of Chinese electric car sales in September were:
- Chinese EV Sales grew by 98.7% Year-on-Year, selling 103,000 units more than January to September 2016.
- September sales grew 7% over that of the record figure of August 2017.
- Should the current growth rate continue, China will reach 1 million EVs registered by the end of the year. It is a foregone conclusion that China will reach its 2 million EV target by 2020 according to our forecasts.
- More than four pure electric vehicles were sold for every plug-in hybrid. Of the three new vehicles that entered the market this month, none were plug-in hybrids.
A full 6-page report with all the stats is available in our shop.
2017 Week 37 - China planning the ban of fossil fuel vehicles
2017 Week 33 - Renault Nissan and Dongfeng enters into EV JV
2017 Week 33 - China EV Sales for July 2017
Chinese EV sales data showed a 30% rise in EV sales for the year to date over the corresponding period in 2016. It’s wattEV2buy’s forecast that China will reach its target of 2 million registered EVs by 2020, and even exceed it as more models become available in the next two years. China is already standing more than 800,000 units of which 200,000 has been registered this year alone. It is our belief that the Chinese EV market is set to reach its one million EV milestone by the end of the year, in light of historically stronger second half sales.
2017 Week 28 - Automakers push back against ZEV plans
The Chinese Governments aggressive electric car quotas are forcing international automakers to fast track electric vehicle plans for the country, fearing penalties such as losing their production licenses. The Chinese Government is expected to implement requirements from 2018 which will require auto companies to sell electric cars to generate ZEV credits. Automakers are complaining that the targets are impossible to meet and will disrupt their businesses. Reuters this week reported on a letter seen by it where auto companies wrote to the China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in June 2018 asking for concessions on the planned initiative. The companies requests include asking for a delay of the program by a year, softening of the penalties and an equal playing field between local and international players.
2017 Week 24 - China May 2017 EV Sales update
EV sales data for May 2017 published this week included data for Germany and China. I will do a complete breakdown of the sales again next month when June figures will allow me to do a deep dive at the halfway mark for the year. Headline data from Germany and China are as follows:
China: Chinese EV sales are recovering at a decent pace. EV sales in May showed a continuation of the trend started in March 2017. Chinese EV sales are now more than 50% higher than the same period a year ago. May EV sales of over 40,000 units bring the year-to-date sales to 134,000 units. Smaller cars like the Zhidou D2 and BAIC E180 still rules the roost. The new Chery eQ1 has also made the Top 20 list for the month.
2017 Week 24 - China not relaxing EV requirements
In Week 22 we reported on concessions agreed between the German Chancellor and Chinese Premier to delay strict ZEV type mandates to allow German automakers some breathing space. This week the Chinese Legislative Affairs Office published draft legislation ignoring the concessions. The proposed legislation will require automakers to sell new energy vehicles equivalent to 8% of total sales in2018, increasing by 2% annually to reach 12% by 2020. Chinese lawmakers and the Calfornia Resource Board met in China last week to expand cooperation on accelerating the deployment of zero-emission vehicles. The delegation also included officials from Chinese vehicle and battery manufacturers such as BYD, BAIC, Great Wall, Geely, Dongfeng, Yangtze Motors and a half dozen other vehicle and battery companies.
2017 Week 23 - China call halt to new EV production
Bloomberg released an unconfirmed report on Tuesday that the Chinese Government would place a moratorium on the release of EV production certificates as the country tries to manage the sustainability of the sector. Although the report remained unconfirmed at the time of going to press shares of automakers with issued permits rallied on the news.
In 2016 the Chinese Government announced that it would limit the number of EVs produced by regulating the sector through the issue of production certificates. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a body that oversees investments in the centrally managed economy, announced that only ten permits would be issued to produce EVs. At the time a much as 200 companies, including 30 IT companies, had business plans to profit from the government’s program to promote electric vehicles. It was estimated that the anticipated production would far exceed 50 million units per year. The Government further feared that the rush of newcomers to the industry would lead to inferior products harming the sustainability of its strategy to dominate the EV sector. In May 2017 I published an article on the permitting process and the products and strategies of companies with issued production certificates. At the time Shenzhen GreenWheel received the 14th permit, allowing the company to produce 50,000 per annum. Since then a 15th permit, possibly the last for the foreseeable future, was issued to the newly formed JAC/VW joint venture, granting a production certificate of 100,000 per annum. The Chinese Government targets to add 2 million new energy vehicles to the national fleet per annum by 2020. In 2016 the country sold more than 500,000 taking the total of EVs on the country’s roads to over 800,000 units. Should the report hold true, it leaves the question what would happen to the business plans of companies such as LeEco and NextEV with much-publicized intentions to develop electric vehicles. As recent as February this year LeEco was forging ahead with breaking ground on its 200,000 plant in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, a $1.8 billion project. NextEV made big strides in electric and autonomous vehicle technology through its NIO brand, breaking production records and setting the first autonomous lap record in the process with its NIO EP9 sports car. The moratorium could very well be for a short while until the Chinese EV sectors show signs of recovering from its recent slump. The Chinese EV sector which showed double-digit growth until 2016 grew only 7% for the year to date in 2017. If the moratorium is expected to last longer, the incumbents might look at approaching other countries to assist them in developing EV plants. Click for a list of the Chinese automakers with EV production certificates and their models.
2017 Week 22 - China delays EV quota by a year
Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel met on Thursday to discuss various trade issues between the two countries, amongst others the impact of the China’s ZEV-like quota on German automaker’s expansion plans in the Asian country. The Chinese Government proposed that car manufacturer had to achieve a level of 8% EV sales by 2018. Although not confirmed Reuters on Friday reported that the Chinese Government agreed to delay the quota to 2019 for German companies but that they should ramp up EV deliveries at a later date.
2017 Week 7 - China EV Sales Slowdown
The Wall Street Journal reported on the Chinese Electric Vehicle market hitting a road block, with new electric vehicles sales down over 60% for January. China up till now has been the mainstay of the sector with sales increases in 2015 of 300% and 50% on top of that in 2016. The recent clampdown on corruption in the sector which led to a range of new regulations being forced on the Chinese market since December 30, 2016, is seen to be the reason for the sharp slowdown. The Wall Street Journal reported on fines of $150 million imposed on some companies in September 2016. The fines were as a result of subsidy fraud. The Chinese Government also indicated earlier the year that they want to lift barriers to entry and limit the market to around ten manufacturers, down from over 200 currently, in a bid to improve quality and safety of the end product.
2016 Week 51 - China considers opening electric vehicle manufacturing to foreigners
In a bid to fast-track its electric vehicle strategy in an effort to curb pollution, the Chinese Government has called for comments on a proposal to invite foreign automakers to manufacture in the country. Current laws are designed to protect local manufacturers by forcing foreign companies to partner with the local automakers. The Chinese Government now propose to relax these conditions for new energy vehicles, providing the likes of Tesla an opportunity to produce locally and protecting their technology by not having to share it with a local partner.
2016 Week 44 - Nissan China EV Strategy
2016 Week 41 - Bumper Year for Chinese EV sales
With the 2016 calendar year quickly coming to and end, it seems from various analysis and reports released this week that it would be a bumper year for electric vehicles. CNBC reported that sales of electric vehicles in Europe would top 500,000 units on the road by the end of the year. Citing a report from non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) Europe, the second largest market for electric vehicles after China will see an addition of well over 200,000 EV’s sold for the year, a significant improvement on the 145,000 sold in 2015. The Guardian reported that the international electric vehicle stock would be more than 2.1M units by the end if 2016, with the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S and BYD’s Tang and Qin being the most popular. Although the EV stock is still only around 1% of total vehicles on the road, it’s now growing 10X faster than traditional combustion vehicles despite low oil prices.
2016 Week 36 - Subsidy Fraud
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese Government fined five vehicle manufacturers for subsidy fraud related to the country’s electric vehicle promotion scheme. The fraud totaled around $150M and the penalties levied involved the company’s to pay back the subsidies and a 50% fine on the fraudulently received subsidies. The Chinese Government started tightening the regulations around the country’s electric vehicle program after recent media reports eluded to the fraud. Four of the companies involved inflated their sales figures while a fifth, Gemsea Bus Manufacturing Co. in Suzhou, entirely fabricated an electric vehicle program and had its auto manufacturing license revoked. On top of the fines, the four remaining companies were taken off the list of manufacturers eligible for subsidies. When reading the announcement, it’s clear that more companies abused the system, but these five were the most blatant.
2016 Week 34 - Targeted Incentives
The Chinese Government is considering new targeted incentives for EV production to weed out mediocre products. The incentives will reward true innovation and design. The incentives will go further and require a certain percentage of plug-in electric cars of total production per year from the manufacturers.
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