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CHINA EV SALES

Global ranking, total EV sales
NO. 1
Global ranking, EV market share of national fleet
NO. 8

(1.1% Q4 2016)

 

CHINESE EV INCENTIVES

EV’s in China enjoy exemptions on acquisition tax and excise tax. In January 2017 the Government cracked down on the sector by capping the total subsidies available at the Local Government level at 50% of that of the Central Government, dropping the NEV subsidy by 20% effective 1 January 2017, and raising the technology threshold of distance per charge and energy consumption. The new subsidy at Central Government level is now 44,000 yuan ($6,333) for EVs with a range greater than 250km (156 miles), down from 60,000 yuan ($8,600). The subsidy for buses was capped at 300,000 yuan (43,000) down from 500,000 yuan ($72,000). The sudden crackdown led to a crash in NEV sales for January 2017 of below 8,000 units compared to a full year total for 2016 of around 500,000 units. The sector has since recovered but is not expected to reach the stellar growth that it needs to outpace 2016 by double digits. For instance, the availability of license plates is awarded on a lottery, auction or according to a quota. In Beijing, electric vehicles are allowed to drive in the city any day of the week where gasoline cars are banned one day a week. The subsidy system is also used to promote the advancement in technology. Currently, electric vehicles with a battery energy density of higher than 120Wh / kg qualify for 1.1 times the subsidy.

Read our blog post on the Chinese New Energy Vehicle Program and the Chinese Governments Strategy to dominate the EV sector.

China EV sales Nov 2017 ytd

ANALYSIS OF CHINESE EV SALES DATA

China has reached the Top 10 Market Share list for the first time in 2015. The country also overtook the USA in 2015 as the country with the highest EV sales for the year. Click through to our detailed breakdown of EV sales in China filled with charts, tables, and insights. We look at the Top EV brands in China, the gainers, the worst performing EVs in China and the battle between BEV and PHEV models.

TOP MONTHLY CHINESE EV SALES RANKING

TOP 25 EV SALES IN CHINA FOR NOVEMBER 2017

China EV sales nov 2017 top 25

CHINESE EV SALES HISTORY

China Nov EV sales month graph

China Nov 2017 ev sales year to date

CHINA EV MODELS

All EV Models available in China currently

baic-ec180-evzotye-d2-e20byd-song-phevgeely-emgrand-ev300-2017jac-iev6s-evbyd-qin-phev-chery-eq-evbyd-e5-300-evkandi-cyclonesaic-roewe-rx5-suvkandi-k12-global hawkchana-benniChangan-benni-mini-e-evbyd-song-e300-suv-bevsaic-roewe-erx5-phevBAIC-EU260-evJMC-E100saic-roewe-iE6changan-eulove-mpvhawtai-ev160Bbyd-tang-phevzotye-zhidou-e20JMC-E200baojun-e100-evdenza-evsaic-roewe-E950haima-@3-evzotye-zhi-ma-e30-evbyd-qin-ev300baic-ev200gac-ge3-bevchery-arrizio-5jmc-E160-evbyd-e6-evgac-gs4-ev-suvzotye-cloud100-evgac-gs5-bevchangan-eado-evgeely-emgrand-phev-2017chevrolet-volt-phevbrilliance-h230-evdongfeng-e30-evhawtai-xev260-evtesla-model-s-75Dtesla-model-X-p90DBAIC-Senova-EX260-EVchery-eq1-evvolvo-s60L-phevCadillac-ct6-phevmercedes-benz-c350-eBMW-530e-phevsaic-maxus-ev-mpv

CHINA EV SALES IN THE NEWS

2017 Week 49 - China subsidy rework for 2018

Aspects of the anticipated 2018 New Energy Vehicle rules for China revealed this week sent some EV related companies shares sliding. Bus and lithium cell companies were hardest hit as subsidies for buses is expected to be impacted the most. From the leaked 2018 NEV subsidy plan the new rules aim to incentives technology advancements to bring longer range EVs to market. The new requirements lift the threshold for energy density and fuel saving level while increasing the range whereby EVs can qualify for subsidies. The rules also put stricter requirements on load capacity consumption (Ekg).

To qualify for subsidies according to the 2018 rules vehicles will have to:

  • Reduce energy consumption to no higher than 2.1kWh/100km down 14% from the 2017 level of 2.4kWh/100km;
  • Energy density requirements are increased from 0.15Wh/kg to 0.2Wh/kg;
  • Vehicles with a range below 300km will lose between RMB 4,000 and 20,000 on subsidies while vehicles with a range over 300km will see a bump in their allowable subsidy;
  • Vehicles with a range below 150km will not qualify for subsidies, thereby in effect disqualifying the Plug-in hybrid

The subsidy for buses will come down to RMB 270,000 from RMB 450,000, a decrease of 66.6% while other commercial vehicles will also see their subsidy slashed by around RMB 75,000.

It will be interesting to see how foreign companies such as Ford adapt their EV strategies according to the new ruling. Ford this week announced that it would release 15 EVs in China by 2025. Ford who only have one EV in China, the Changan Ford Mondeo Energi with a range of 22 miles, does already not qualify for the current threshold of 32 miles.

2017 Week 46 - China to extend EV manufacturing permits

 

Bloomberg reported that the Chinese Government is considering the extension of its EV production permitting program which was created to protect the market against an oversupply of EVs. The program allowed for only 15 EV production permits of which JAC was the last to receive in May 2017. The extension of the permitting program is rumored to commence in 2018 and based on recent comments is expected to allow wholly owned subsidiaries of foreign companies to partake.

2017 Week 41 - Chinese EV sales to reach 500K for 2017

 

Only a month after Chinese monthly EV sales set a new record of 53,000 units September sales set a new record of 58,000. Year to date EV sales in China which stands at 323K are now just shy of total sales in 2016 of 326K. At this rate we expect total EV sales for 2017 in China to reach 500K.

Charts-china-ev-sales-septemebr-2017

Other highlights of Chinese electric car sales in September were:

  • Chinese EV Sales grew by 98.7% Year-on-Year, selling 103,000 units more than January to September 2016.
  • September sales grew 7% over that of the record figure of August 2017.
  • Should the current growth rate continue, China will reach 1 million EVs registered by the end of the year. It is a foregone conclusion that China will reach its 2 million EV target by 2020 according to our forecasts.
  • More than four pure electric vehicles were sold for every plug-in hybrid. Of the three new vehicles that entered the market this month, none were plug-in hybrids.

A full 6-page report with all the stats is available in our shop.

2017 Week 37 - China planning the ban of fossil fuel vehicles

The Chinese Ministry of Industry has started planning a timetable for the banning of fossil fuel vehicles. Though no timetable was provided, Deputy Minister, Xin Guobin was quoted as saying – “Some countries have developed a timetable for the cessation of production and sales of traditional energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry has also started the relevant research, will also be with the relevant departments to develop our timetable, these initiatives will promote the development of China’s auto industry…” At the end of 2016, China had over 200 million combustion vehicles on its roads, creating an environmental challenge due to pollution caused by vehicles in cities.

In related news, China connected a network of 167,000 EV charging stations via the telematics platform of the State Grid Corporation, making it one the largest charging networks globally.

2017 Week 33 - Renault Nissan and Dongfeng enters into EV JV

The Renault Nissan Alliance and Dongfeng Motor Group forged a partnership to co-develop electric vehicles in China according to a press release by Nissan. The new JV company is called eGT New Energy Automotive Co and will focus on the core competencies of each to produce EVs for the Chinese market. The first vehicle by eGT will be an A-segment SUV based on the Renault Nissan platform. The vehicle will be an intelligent and interconnected EV, which is the new rage in China. Alibaba and SAIC released the first successful mass-market interconnected car last year, the Roewe eRX5 SUV.

“This project is the result of a joint effort to develop electric vehicles for the Chinese market, by the ‘Golden Triangle’ formed by Dongfeng, Renault, and Nissan, with an innovative business model,” said Zhu Yanfeng, Chairman of Dongfeng. “We expect to meet the transformation trend of the market in China; where cars are becoming light, electric, intelligent, interconnected and shared. This is also testimony of a deepened and strengthened strategic cooperation between the three parties.”

The new venture is owned 25% each by Renault and Nissan while Dongfeng will hold the remaining 50% and headquartered in the City of Shiyan, Hubei Province. Assembly of the EV will be done at the 120,000 capacity Dongfeng plant in Shiyan and will commence in 2019.

2017 Week 33 - China EV Sales for July 2017

Chinese EV sales data showed a 30% rise in EV sales for the year to date over the corresponding period in 2016. It’s wattEV2buy’s forecast that China will reach its target of 2 million registered EVs by 2020, and even exceed it as more models become available in the next two years. China is already standing more than 800,000 units of which 200,000 has been registered this year alone. It is our belief that the Chinese EV market is set to reach its one million EV milestone by the end of the year, in light of historically stronger second half sales.

2017 Week 28 - Automakers push back against ZEV plans

The Chinese Governments aggressive electric car quotas are forcing international automakers to fast track electric vehicle plans for the country, fearing penalties such as losing their production licenses. The Chinese Government is expected to implement requirements from 2018 which will require auto companies to sell electric cars to generate ZEV credits. Automakers are complaining that the targets are impossible to meet and will disrupt their businesses. Reuters this week reported on a letter seen by it where auto companies wrote to the China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in June 2018 asking for concessions on the planned initiative. The companies requests include asking for a delay of the program by a year, softening of the penalties and an equal playing field between local and international players.

2017 Week 24 - China May 2017 EV Sales update

EV sales data for May 2017 published this week included data for Germany and China. I will do a complete breakdown of the sales again next month when June figures will allow me to do a deep dive at the halfway mark for the year. Headline data from Germany and China are as follows:

China: Chinese EV sales are recovering at a decent pace. EV sales in May showed a continuation of the trend started in March 2017. Chinese EV sales are now more than 50% higher than the same period a year ago. May EV sales of over 40,000 units bring the year-to-date sales to 134,000 units. Smaller cars like the Zhidou D2 and BAIC E180 still rules the roost. The new Chery eQ1 has also made the Top 20 list for the month.

2017 Week 24 - China not relaxing EV requirements

In Week 22 we reported on concessions agreed between the German Chancellor and Chinese Premier to delay strict ZEV type mandates to allow German automakers some breathing space. This week the Chinese Legislative Affairs Office published draft legislation ignoring the concessions. The proposed legislation will require automakers to sell new energy vehicles equivalent to 8% of total sales in2018, increasing by 2% annually to reach 12% by 2020. Chinese lawmakers and the Calfornia Resource Board met in China last week to expand cooperation on accelerating the deployment of zero-emission vehicles. The delegation also included officials from Chinese vehicle and battery manufacturers such as BYDBAICGreat WallGeelyDongfengYangtze Motors and a half dozen other vehicle and battery companies.

2017 Week 23 - China call halt to new EV production

Bloomberg released an unconfirmed report on Tuesday that the Chinese Government would place a moratorium on the release of EV production certificates as the country tries to manage the sustainability of the sector. Although the report remained unconfirmed at the time of going to press shares of automakers with issued permits rallied on the news.

In 2016 the Chinese Government announced that it would limit the number of EVs produced by regulating the sector through the issue of production certificates. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a body that oversees investments in the centrally managed economy, announced that only ten permits would be issued to produce EVs. At the time a much as 200 companies, including 30 IT companies, had business plans to profit from the government’s program to promote electric vehicles. It was estimated that the anticipated production would far exceed 50 million units per year. The Government further feared that the rush of newcomers to the industry would lead to inferior products harming the sustainability of its strategy to dominate the EV sector.

In May 2017 I published an article on the permitting process and the products and strategies of companies with issued production certificates. At the time Shenzhen GreenWheel received the 14th permit, allowing the company to produce 50,000 per annum. Since then a 15th permit, possibly the last for the foreseeable future, was issued to the newly formed JAC/VW joint venture, granting a production certificate of 100,000 per annum.

The Chinese Government targets to add 2 million new energy vehicles to the national fleet per annum by 2020. In 2016 the country sold more than 500,000 taking the total of EVs on the country’s roads to over 800,000 units. Should the report hold true, it leaves the question what would happen to the business plans of companies such as LeEco and NextEV with much-publicised intentions to develop electric vehicles. As recent as February this year LeEco was forging ahead with breaking ground on its 200,000 plant in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, a $1.8 billion project. NextEV made big strides in electric and autonomous vehicle technology through its NIO brand, breaking production records and setting the first autonomous lap record in the process with its NIO EP9 sports car. The moratorium could very well be for a short while until the Chinese EV sectors show signs of recovering from its recent slump. The Chinese EV sector which showed double digit growth until 2016 grew only 7% for the year to date in 2017. If the moratorium is expected to last longer, the incumbents might look at approaching other countries to assist them in developing EV plants.

Click for a list of the Chinese automakers with EV production certificates and their models.

2017 Week 22 - China delays EV quota by a year

Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel met on Thursday to discuss various trade issues between the two countries, amongst others the impact of the China’s ZEV-like quota on German automaker’s expansion plans in the Asian country. The Chinese Government proposed that car manufacturer had to achieve a level of 8% EV sales by 2018. Although not confirmed Reuters on Friday reported that the Chinese Government agreed to delay the quota to 2019 for German companies but that they should ramp up EV deliveries at a later date.

2017 Week 7 - China EV Sales Slowdown

The Wall Street Journal reported on the Chinese Electric Vehicle market hitting a road block, with new electric vehicles sales down over 60% for January. China up till now has been the mainstay of the sector with sales increases in 2015 of 300% and 50% on top of that in 2016. The recent clampdown on corruption in the sector which led to a range of new regulations being forced on the Chinese market since December 30, 2016, is seen to be the reason for the sharp slowdown. The Wall Street Journal reported on fines of  $150 million imposed on some companies in September 2016. The fines were as a result of subsidy fraud. The Chinese Government also indicated earlier the year that they want to lift barriers to entry and limit the market to around ten manufacturers, down from over 200 currently, in a bid to improve quality and safety of the end product.

2016 Week 51 - China considers opening electric vehicle manufacturing to foreigners

In a bid to fast-track its electric vehicle strategy in an effort to curb pollution, the Chinese Government has called for comments on a proposal to invite foreign automakers to manufacture in the country. Current laws are designed to protect local manufacturers by forcing foreign companies to partner with the local automakers. The Chinese Government now propose to relax these conditions for new energy vehicles, providing the likes of Tesla an opportunity to produce locally and protecting their technology by not having to share it with a local partner.

2016 Week 44 - Nissan China EV Strategy

In related company news, Reuters quoted Nissan CEO, Carlos Ghosn on Thursday announcing that the company has a goal of an $8000 EV for China. The ambitious goal is made possible by the aggressive EV subsidies of the Chinese Government according to Ghosn, speaking at an industry event in Paris.

2016 Week 41 - Bumper Year for Chinese EV sales

With the 2016 calendar year quickly coming to and end, it seems from various analysis and reports released this week that it would be a bumper year for electric vehicles. CNBC reported that sales of electric vehicles in Europe would top 500,000 units on the road by the end of the year. Citing a report from non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) Europe, the second largest market for electric vehicles after China will see an addition of well over 200,000 EV’s sold for the year, a significant improvement on the 145,000 sold in 2015. The Guardian reported that the international electric vehicle stock would be more than 2.1M units by the end if 2016, with the Nissan LeafTesla Model S and BYD’s Tang and Qin being the most popular. Although the EV stock is still only around 1% of total vehicles on the road, it’s now growing 10X faster than traditional combustion vehicles despite low oil prices.

2016 Week 36 - Subsidy Fraud

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese Government fined five vehicle manufacturers for subsidy fraud related to the country’s electric vehicle promotion scheme. The fraud totaled around $150M and the penalties levied involved the company’s to pay back the subsidies and a 50% fine on the fraudulently received subsidies. The Chinese Government started tightening the regulations around the country’s electric vehicle program after recent media reports eluded to the fraud. Four of the companies involved inflated their sales figures while a fifth, Gemsea Bus Manufacturing Co. in Suzhou, entirely fabricated an electric vehicle program and had its auto manufacturing license revoked. On top of the fines, the four remaining companies were taken off the list of manufacturers eligible for subsidies.  When reading the announcement, it’s clear that more companies abused the system, but these five were the most blatant.

2016 Week 34 - Targeted Incentives

The Chinese Government is considering new targeted incentives for EV production to weed out mediocre products. The incentives will reward true innovation and design. The incentives will go further and require a certain percentage of plug-in electric cars of total production per year from the manufacturers.

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