The global plug-in electric fleet has grown from a handful of vehicles in 2010 to over 2 million in 2016. Global EV sales are expected to grow dramatically over the next five years. Governments utilize various tax incentives, rebates, and waivers to further the sales of plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles. Restrictions are applied to internal combustion vehicles of which plug-in electric vehicles are exempted. Some, such as the Netherlands and Norway is in the process of setting aggressive targets to replace their total fleet with electric vehicles by 2025.
Click on a country below to view detailed sales data and the incentives behind it that drive the trend in that territory.
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GLOBAL EV SALES PER COUNTRY
GLOBAL EV SALES IN THE NEWS
2017 Week 24 - Sales update: Germany and China
EV sales data for May 2017 published this week included data for Germany and China. I will do a complete breakdown of the sales again next month when June figures will allow me to do a deep dive at the halfway mark for the year. Headline data from Germany and China are as follows:
Germany: EV Sales keep powering ahead EV sales now nearly double that of the same period 2016. Total sales for the year to date stands at just over 17,000 units compared to 8,800 at May 2016. May 2017 EV sales in Germany was nearly treble that of May 2016 as 3,754 EV were added to the fleet compared to only 1,392 units in May 2016.
China: Chinese EV sales are recovering at a decent pace. EV sales in May showed a continuation of the trend started in March 2017. Chinese EV sales are now more than 50% higher than the same period a year ago. May EV sales of over 40,000 units bring the year-to-date sales to 134,000 units. Smaller cars like the Zhidou D2 and BAIC E180 still rules the roost. The new Chery eQ1 has also made the Top 20 list for the month.
2017 Week 24 - China not relaxing EV sales
In Week 22 we reported on concessions agreed between the German Chancellor and Chinese Premier to delay strict ZEV type mandates to allow German automakers some breathing space. This week the Chinese Legislative Affairs Office published draft legislation ignoring the concessions. The proposed legislation will require automakers to sell new energy vehicles equivalent to 8% of total sales in2018, increasing by 2% annually to reach 12% by 2020. Chinese lawmakers and the Calfornia Resource Board met in China last week to expand cooperation on accelerating the deployment of zero-emission vehicles. The delegation also included officials from Chinese vehicle and battery manufacturers such as BYD, BAIC, Great Wall, Geely, Dongfeng, Yangtze Motors and a half dozen other vehicle and battery companies.
2017 Week 23 - China calls halt to new EV production
Bloomberg released an unconfirmed report on Tuesday that the Chinese Government would place a moratorium on the release of EV production certificates as the country tries to manage the sustainability of the sector. Although the report remained unconfirmed at the time of going to press shares of automakers with issued permits rallied on the news.
In 2016 the Chinese Government announced that it would limit the number of EVs produced by regulating the sector through the issue of production certificates. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a body that oversees investments in the centrally managed economy, announced that only ten permits would be issued to produce EVs. At the time a much as 200 companies, including 30 IT companies, had business plans to profit from the government’s program to promote electric vehicles. It was estimated that the anticipated production would far exceed 50 million units per year. The Government further feared that the rush of newcomers to the industry would lead to inferior products harming the sustainability of its strategy to dominate the EV sector.
In May 2017 I published an article on the permitting process and the products and strategies of companies with issued production certificates. At the time Shenzhen GreenWheel received the 14th permit, allowing the company to produce 50,000 per annum. Since then a 15th permit, possibly the last for the foreseeable future, was issued to the newly formed JAC/VW joint venture, granting a production certificate of 100,000 per annum.
The Chinese Government targets to add 2 million new energy vehicles to the national fleet per annum by 2020. In 2016 the country sold more than 500,000 taking the total of EVs on the country’s roads to over 800,000 units. Should the report hold true, it leaves the question what would happen to the business plans of companies such as LeEco and NextEV with much-publicised intentions to develop electric vehicles. As recent as February this year LeEco was forging ahead with breaking ground on its 200,000 plant in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, a $1.8 billion project. NextEV made big strides in electric and autonomous vehicle technology through its NIO brand, breaking production records and setting the first autonomous lap record in the process with its NIO EP9 sports car. The moratorium could very well be for a short while until the Chinese EV sectors show signs of recovering from its recent slump. The Chinese EV sector which showed double digit growth until 2016 grew only 7% for the year to date in 2017. If the moratorium is expected to last longer, the incumbents might look at approaching other countries to assist them in developing EV plants.
Click for a list of the Chinese automakers with EV production certificates and their models.
2017 Week 23 - Australia Gov slammed for lack of EV support
Longtime Nissan Chairman, Carlos Ghosn, this week commented that he does not see electric vehicle adoption equal to that of other nations soon. The Australian Governments lack of support for the sector has received widespread criticism from the auto sector recently. Mr. Ghosn was quoted by Australian publication, Drive, saying “The subsidies are important to jump-start the technology and help the technology reach a new level. I understand that your government is going to issue a new policy. I will be waiting [to see] what are the components of this policy.” Earlier this year Nissan Australia CEO Richard Emery lashed out at the Australian government over a lack of support for the EV sector, describing his dealings with the industry as ‘amateur hour.’
Other automakers have shared the same sentiment, this week BMW country chief, Mark Werner, according to Car Advice said at the launch of the plug-in hybrid 530e iPerformance that the government has “stuck their collective heads in the sand.” “Our government is so far behind in their view of climate change,” he said. “Australia has shocking emissions levels. Worse than what we would call non-industrialised or third-world countries.”
EV sales in Australia totaled less than a 1,000 vehicles in 2016, while the smaller neighbor, New Zealand sold close to 1,500 in the same period.
2017 Week 22 - USA EV Sales up 43% Y-t-D
EV sales in the USA are up 43% Year-to-Date after sales in May resulted in it being the second best month for electric cars for the year so far. May 2017 sales outperformed May 2016 with a 46% increase. The tussle between BEVs and PHEVs is to close to call as pure electric vehicles continue giving ground on the lead at had over PHEVs, with PHEVs outselling BEVs in May with 8,325 units vs. 8,243 pure electric vehicles which include the BMW i3 REx.
The best performing electric vehicle for the month was the Toyota Prius, dethroning the Chevrolet Bolt for the first time this year. The Tesla Model S also dropped out of the top 3, a rare occurrence, making way for its sibling, the Tesla Model X. The Hyundai Ionic and Chrysler Pacifica both climbed five or more positions for the year, with the Chevrolet Bolt increased its units sold with 21% on April but remaining in the 5th place overall for the year. The big losers for May 2017 were the Mercedes C350e, Audi A3 e-tron, and Ford Focus Electric.
The Top 3 brands remained the same as this time last year with Tesla, Chevrolet and Ford taking the top three positions. The rest of the brands had to make way for the rise of Toyota, taking the 4th place. Volvo gave up the most ground, falling from 9th to 12th spot.
2017 Week 22 - INDIA targets 6 million plug-in vehicles by 2020
The Indian Government’s Department of Energy posted a blog in which it reiterates its ambition to only sell EVs by 2030 through its National Electric Mobility Mission Plan on which we reported on in Week 17. The Government’s plan set a target of between 6 and 7 million units by 2020 already, which seems overly ambitious as EV sales have yet to pick-up in the country. One if its largest automakers Mahindra and Mahindra last week announced that it only now plans to increase its battery production capacity from 500 units to 5,000 a month, a far cry from what should be needed if it wants to produce its fair share of 6 million units. The blog sees that EVs will reach parity with ICE vehicles by 2022. Bloomberg New Energy Finance in a report last week saw this only happening in 2025. Automakers such as Mahindra is reluctant to overly invest in EV manufacturing infrastructure while the prices of ICE cars remain cheaper than EVs in a country where the consumer is very price sensitive. The Indian Government is yet to definitively announce what financial contribution it will make towards achieving the goals, other than saying it acknowledges that it will need to carry the industry for the first three years.
2017 Week 22 - CHINA delays EV quota by a year
Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel met on Thursday to discuss various trade issues between the two countries, amongst others the impact of the China’s ZEV-like quota on German automaker’s expansion plans in the Asian country. The Chinese Government proposed that car manufacturer had to achieve a level of 8% EV sales by 2018. Although not confirmed Reuters on Friday reported that the Chinese Government agreed to delay the quota to 2019 for German companies but that they should ramp up EV deliveries at a later date.
2017 Week 19 - Think Tank predicts 95% of miles will be shared and autonomous by 2030.
CNBC ran an article on the prediction by the US thinktank RethinkX that 95% of miles traveled will be in electric powered autonomous cars by 2030. The controversial prediction is way above that of Boston Consulting which predicted that only 25% of such trips would be in self-driving or shared vehicles. Looking at the website of Tony Seba, a co-author of the RethinkX study, “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.” the report also predicts that only 20% of Americans will own cars by 2030.
The predicted shift in mobility leads into other news this week where Ford’s CEO was challenged on his strategy for the company, resulting in its performance lagging its competitors. Mark Fields, CEO since 2014, embarked on what is the auto sector icon’s biggest strategy shift in history by investing heavily in self-driving technology. The challenge for the Ford CEO’s strategy is that he has one foot in the future and one in the present, resulting in an earnings decline of 42%.
2017 Week 18 - USA April EV Sales continue upward trend
USA EV Sales for April were released this week showed an increase of nearly 25% on a year-on-year basis, bringing the 2017 figure to 54,000 units for the year-to-date, which is 41% ahead of the 38,000 for the same period in 2016.
PHEV vehicles are gaining on the lead of BEV vehicles as Toyota Prius sales continued its upward momentum while deliveries for the Nissan Leaf and Tesla’s Models S and X slipped (hard). Sales for new models introduced through the month were a mixed bag, with the Cadillac CT6 PHV only racking up 6 units while the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV mustered 205 units after a delayed start to the year. The Chevrolet Bolt recovered nicely and Fiat had a record month with the 500e after introducing special deals. A big loser was the Mercedes C350e, dropping to only three units from a high of 210 in January.
2017 Week 17 - Peak in oil due to EVs confirmed by Big Oil
Record breaking sales in the first quarter of 2017 reaffirm the trend set by the healthy sales growth experienced in the sector during 2016. All expectations are that 2017 would even be better and that the deluge of new models reaching dealership floors by the end of the decade will sustain the growth into the next decade, causing many stakeholders to adjust their forecasts upwards. We have covered most of these forecast adjustments, but the one sector that is forever dissing the sector, Big Oil, has as recent as Week 9 2017 maintained that the disruption caused by EV’s is overstated.
Finally, this week during the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Conference voices from the sector came out signaling that EV penetration will hurt oil demand. Total SA’s Chief Energy Economist, Joel Couse, projected that the impact of electric vehicles would cause the demand for oil to flatten or even decline by 2030. The CEO of Royal Dutch Shell shared the same sentiments recently as the company trimmed their forecasts, indicating that oil demand my peak by the late 2020’s. The reasoning behind the shift in outlook is sparked by electric vehicles being able to compete with combustion vehicles in both performance and price as battery prices decline.
Michael Liebreich, the founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, pointed out that there would be 120 models across the spectrum by 2020. He was quoted further saying what we already know – ”These are great cars. They will make the internal combustion equivalent look old fashioned.”
2017 Week 15 - Uber to boost the EV market
Increased support by ride-hailing companies such as Uber and Ola are becoming a big impetus for EV sales globally. This week Uber launched a program to incentivize many of its drivers to switch to electric vehicles. The program, driven by Uber owned leasing company, Xchange Leasing targets leasing up to 10% of all vehicles in Oregon as electric vehicles by 2019. The program follows on similar efforts in other countries by the company. In London, Uber is building a charging network to support a fleet of 150 electric vehicles, in Cape Town and Johannesburg the company deployed a fleet of BMW i3s on its uberGreen platform. UberGreen projects are also piloted in Lisbon, Madrid, and Paris. Uber is estimated to employ over a million drivers globally via its platform, a target of 10% will add a 100,000 electric vehicles, or just under 5% of the current EV fleet.
Other ride-hailing companies, such as the Softbank backed Ola in India, started to include electric vehicles in their business models. Ola CEO, Bhavish Aggarwal last week announced a pilot project for a large-scale rollout of electric vehicles. Ola’s pilot project includes thousands of EVs and a charging network. An indication of the magnitude of the project can be gleaned from a statement by Softbank Chairman, Masayoshi Son, made in December 2016, saying that Ola will roll out a million EVs over a five year period.
2017 Week 9 - Oil market discounts threat of electric vehicles
An article by OilPrice.com based on BP’s long-term energy outlook claims the electric vehicle car threat to the oil industry is overstated and a red herring for investors and other observers. The article cast doubt on if the achievability of a target of a 100 million electric vehicles by 2030, especially in a Trump era. Nonetheless, BP’s forecast still sees only a marginal effect of only 1.2 million barrels per day on oil demand if the target of around 7% EV’s by 2030 is reached. The article concludes that a bigger unknown to oil demand is gains in fuel efficiencies, largely driven by more stringent emission targets.
2017 Week 8 - Electric Vehicle Sector under attack
1. The disruption caused by the threat of electric vehicles is finally hitting home, and in no other week has pushback by the proxies of the affected parties been so prominent than the past week. The efforts to block the march of electric vehicles has reached new heights as old foes Big Corn, and Big Oil agreed to work together in defending the transportation fuel sector. Reuters reports the Renewable Fuel Association (AFR) and American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) will target electric vehicle incentives to “level” the playing fields. We hope the AFR and AFPM remember all the subsidies and support they received over the years to “level” the playing fields.
In the USA report by the Sierra Club, a respected environmental association, reported on the drive by various States to penalize electric vehicle owners. The report speculates that the efforts, already successful in ten States and considered in a further six, is backed by the Oil Industry. Only four States have been successful in blocking the attack. Penalties in the form of fees varying between $50 and $300 per year are levied on drivers. In a separate effort, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers asked the newly Trump appointed Environmental Protection Agency Tsar, Scott Pruitt, to withdraw the Obama era agreed on 54.5MPG emissions benchmark required by 2025. The AAM’s reasoning is that achieving the standard is too costly and that the consumer’s demand is not there to support such a stringent rule. Really? Our question to the AAM is how can the consumer demand something if the supply of something else is stuffed down their throats?
In Hong Kong, a mainstay market for Tesla, the Financial Secretary in his budget announced that the 20-year-old tax incentive for first time EV registrations would be scrapped, and the tax discount on electric vehicles be capped at around $12,500. The result is that the cost of a Tesla Model S could nearly double in price. The move is in a bid to limit overall car ownership.
2017 Week 7 - EV penetration forecasts updated to bullish
1.The respected Economist Magazine this week commented on forecast adjustments by various investment houses for the penetration of electric vehicles. Up till last year the consensus was that only 4% of new vehicles would be electric by 2025. BNP Paribas now forecast 11% penetration by 2025, while Morgan Stanley see’s a 7% penetration. In 2016 international EV sales increased with nearly 750,000 units (42%) in spite of a low fuel price environment. One factor driving the change of heart are aggressive regulations to support environmental targets. In Norway electric vehicles now makes up 37% of new vehicle fleet amid government support while in China the Government aims to have EV’s make up 8% of new vehicles by 2018. Technology has also moved much faster than anticipated and battery cost, a long time stumbling block is coming down faster than anticipated, with some mega factories coming online within the next two years. Our hearts go out to the automakers that failed to notice the trend, RIP Fiat, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and the list goes on, not to mention Big Oil.
2017 Week 6 - 4th Richest man in the world to back electric vehicle for Mexico
The world’s fourth richest man, Carlos Slim of Mexico, announced this week that he would back the development of a Mexican-produced electric vehicle through his company, Giant Motors in a joint venture with Grupo Bimbo, the world’s largest bread maker. The strategy plays off in an environment where many US based automakers are contemplating bringing production back to the USA amidst President Trumps America First policy environment. Mr. Slim said the electric vehicle would be designed specifically for Mexican conditions. Giant Motor’s and Chinese JAC Motors also entered into an alliance to manufacture vehicles in Mexico’s Hidalgo province.
2017 Week 4 - Shell to inlcude charging stations at its petrol stations
Big Oil is noticing the rise of electric vehicles and is preparing themselves to profit from the sector in a move that will help the electric vehicle snowball accelerate. The Financial Times this week reported that Shell would introduce fast charging stations at various European petrol stations, while Total is similarly studying the viability of including charging stations. It seems downstream oil business has changed their tune from being deniers in 2016 to the adage of “if you can’t beat them join them.”
2017 Week 3 - Electric vehicle technology accelerates faster than antisipated
A report just released by the Californian Air Resouces Board indicated that advancement in electric vehicle technology is happening at a much faster pace than anticipated five years back. The report highlights the efforts by Tesla and Chevrolet to bring affordable and long range vehicles to the market. The report found expanding charging networks, advancements in battery performance, decreasing cell costs, and the number of models available to the consumer as factors for the improved results. On the other hand, the Board states that not all automakers attack the challenges with the same vigor, with Honda and Fiat Chrysler named as company’s that just do the bare minimum to comply with regulations. We predict this will reflect in the various companies share prices five years from now when the next report take the pulse of the sector.
2017 Week 3 - India's 19th richest man to back electric vehicle for India
Bloomberg reported that the JSW Group’s owner and Chairman, Sajjan Jindal, announced in Davos, Switzerland his intention to enter the Indian Electric Vehicle market by 2020. The metals tycoon expects the Indian government, like many other governments, will promote EVs once it’s more affordable. Although India has some large automakers such as Tata and Mahindra, which is a contender in the Formula E Series, the country is significantly lagging its neighbor China, the world’s largest EV market. India had only around 6,000 electric vehicles registered at the end of 2015.
2017 Week 1 - KPMG's 2017 Global Automotive Executive Survey
KPMG’s 2017 Global Automotive Executive Survey leaves us dumbfounded as an overwhelming number of executives still see Battery Electric Vehicles fail and Fuel Cells to be the real deal. The report, however, identifies Battery Electric Vehicles as the key trend up to 2025 as regulatory pressure pushes awareness of the technology. A telling figure though is that amongst downstream players, such as auto dealers, Battery Electric Vehicles are second only to connectivity and digitalization, again proving the reluctance of dealers to push the technology.
2016 Week 50 - Norways electric vehicle sales hits records
Norway hits 100,000 electric vehicles, making it the 3rd nation behind China and the USA to do so. The country has the highest percentage of electric vehicle sales as a percentage of overall sales, as well as the highest percentage of electric vehicle on the road as a percentage of the total vehicle fleet. The Norwegian Government’s employed aggressive incentives and regulations to support the transition to electric vehicles. The nation is expected to implement a target in the near future to achieve a 100% zero emission vehicle fleet by 2025.
2016 Week 42 - Fitch Ratings warn Oil Industry on Electric Vehicles
1. The Financial Times reported on a recent Fitch Ratings report warning that the Oil Industry faces a serious threat from the widespread adoption of Electric Vehicles. The Fitch report goes further by including other sectors such as gas and coal that would be affected. One of the risks identified by Fitch is that the Oil Industry does not have a plan to deal with the new technology and that radical change, as a result of the fast pace of new technologies coming from the electric vehicle sector, is catching the industry by surprise. Up to now, the low oil price stunted the growth of electric vehicles, but recent moves to cut production signaled that the major oil producers target is shifting, forced by ever increasing budget deficits experienced by the major oil producing countries.
2016 Week 41 - 2016 Bumper Year forecasted, Incentives
1. With the 2016 calendar year quickly coming to and end, it seems from various analysis and reports released this week that it would be a bumper year for electric vehicles. CNBC reported that sales of electric vehicles in Europe would top 500,000 units on the road by the end of the year. Citing a report from non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) Europe, the second largest market for electric vehicles after China will see an addition of well over 200,000 EV’s sold for the year, a significant improvement on the 145,000 sold in 2015. The Guardian reported that the international electric vehicle stock would be more than 2.1M units by the end if 2016, with the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S and BYD’s Tang and Qin being the most popular. Although the EV stock is still only around 1% of total vehicles on the road, it’s now growing 10X faster than traditional combustion vehicles despite low oil prices.
2. Legislation promoting the sale of electric vehicles, one of the key pillars for growing the new technology, has gained traction in the last week with new draft proposals being put forward in Europe, the UK, and the USA. New European legislation expected by the end of 2016 would require that all new and refurbished homes be equipped with electric vehicle charging points from 2019. Further, it would be required by 2023 that 10% of all public parking space should include charging facilities. In the UK the draft Clean Air Framework published on Tuesday tabled proposals which included EV’s to use bus lanes, the right to go first at traffic lights and cheaper parking. In the USA, Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio Democrat) introduced the Electric Vehicle Credit Act which aims to introduce a non-taxable employee benefit to promote electric vehicles.
2016 Week 35 - Opec Survey on EV's
1. According to a Financial Mail report, an Opec survey by its member states concluded that only 1 in 16 vehicles would be powered by any other means than hydrocarbons by 2040. It is very clear that the industry still has its head in the sand. The member countries forecast is in stark contradiction to the strategy changes by most of the vehicle manufacturers made during 2016 and government targets committed to as per the International Energy Agency 2016 report .
2016 Week 34 - Lithium Shortage / Shell Australia
1. Recent reports of a Lithium shortage, which is more a case of miners not able to keep up production with demand requirements rather than there not being enough of the resource spurred Caltex Australia CEO, Julian Segal to comment that electric vehicles will not be a factor for the next ten years. Caltex has a vested interest in talking down the technology since they sell $17Bln of fuel per year. Mr. Segal, however, admitted that the rise of EV’s over combustion engines is unavoidable as the modern EV is to combustion engines as the car was to the horse drawn buggy.
2016 Week 28 - EV Sales China
2016 Week 27 - Richard Branson
1. Richard Branson, an early adopter of the electric vehicle trend and owner of one of the first Formula E teams, DS Virgin Racing believes that in 15 years all vehicles on the road would be electric. Branson credited Formula E for its contribution, stating “What we’re doing with these race cars is pushing the technology forward so that road cars one day will be able to go hundreds of miles without having to recharge their batteries.”
2016 Week 26 - World Energy Council EV Report
1. The World Energy Council in a recently released report calls for a 16% market share of electric vehicles by 2020 to achieve climate change mitigation goals.
2016 Week 25 - EV Market and low fuel price
1. According to a New York Times article, 75% of EV and PHEV owners that traded in their vehicles in 2016 in the USA to date replaced it with gas guzzlers. The low fuel prices were cited as the driver behind this trend.
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Top 10 EV Countries Q1 EV sales – USA beats China. wattEV2Buy dissect EV sales for Q1 2017 in the top 10 countries by make and model.
EV sales for 2017 kicked off rather poorly in January with a disappointingly low 7,000 units. The Chinese holiday season and the regulatory clampdown on the abuse of EV subsidies were blamed for the lackluster sales.
A deeper analysis of the UK electric vehicle sales showed a significant rise of the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) component, rising 34%, or around 800 units in March from the year before.